What Just Happened in Syria and What Will Happen Next
Americans may have missed the biggest headline of the week during their holiday weekend because major news networks barely covered the story at all (it was front page across Europe and page 2 in most American publications):
The second most important city in Syria has fallen without a fight, and a new coalition of Syrian rebels now control about a third of the country. The conflict in the rotting heart of the Middle East that has festered for nearly 14 years has been completely reshaped, literally overnight.
Last Thursday, November 28, as Americans celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday, a new coalition of Syrian rebels launched a massive offensive. Within one day they had captured large parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces in northwestern Syria. A day later they had captured the most important city and the most heavily fortified military bases outside of Damascus. There is no way to describe what occurred other than to call it a total collapse.
My initial analysis is here:
I will have new analysis up as I can type, but here is what we know at the current moment.
Battle Lines Near Hama
On Saturday night it looked like the new rebel coalition was going to completely overrun the city of Hama, located approximately 135 km south of Aleppo, 45 km north of Homs, and 205 km north of Damascus, central to Syria's western corridor. To lose Hama would be to virtually give the north of Syria to the rebels. There were also rumors of a possible coup in Damascus, which would have been a plausible explanation of why the regime was letting the rebels take the north.
On Sunday morning, the Syrian regime did mobilize to protect Hama. The initial rebel convoy appears to have withdrawn, and battles have mostly been occurring north of Hama. I will not attempt to summarize the current status of the battle as things are very fluid, but it is safe to say that the regime appears as though it will indeed fight for Hama.
The Syrian rebel force is extremely strong, and growing. Hundreds of videos uploaded in the last five days show Syrian rebels capturing tanks, anti-aircraft batteries and handheld missiles (MANPADS), ammo stores, artillery, and even aircraft. Not only this, but some of Syria’s largest prisons, filled with political prisoners and prisoners of war, have also been liberated. Furthermore, there are already signs that new recruits are filling the rebel ranks. The Syrian regime will be facing a completely renewed opposition force.
No Help From Hezbollah, Little From Iran or Russia, Maybe Some From Iraq… but There’s Also No ISIS
As I wrote about in my initial analysis, Assad may have to fight this fight with little to no support from its key allies that have kept it propped up for more than a decade. Since I’ve written that, Russia has withdrawn its forces from almost all of its bases except for the northwest Syrian coastline (more on this later) and has conducted no militarily significant airstrikes. Russia has, however, bombed hospitals and civilians in the cities of Idlib and Aleppo, punishing civilians for its military setbacks (as it always does). As far as I am aware, there are no signs that Hezbollah fighters have been mobilized (probably because there are none to mobilize). Iraq, a key ally to Iran, has indeed deployed some soldiers to Syria, but it appears to be a fairly limited force aimed at shoring up security in Damascus and sending at least a signal of support to Assad. It remains unclear if Assad has enough support from his own demoralized military and from this coalition of distracted or broken allies, but this is one of the most important questions we’ll be monitoring as we go forward.
The rebels, on the other hand, are missing a key enemy: ISIS. In previous years, most of or all of the rebel groups involved in this offensive have had to battle Assad and its allies while also contending with the Islamic State terrorist group. The Syrian rebels ejected ISIS from northwestern and north-central Syria but always had to contend with the fact that ISIS could roll right into their rear if they were too focused on Assad to the south.
(Incidentally, this is why you can safely ignore any analysts who are talking about “ISIS taking over Syria.” That’s pure propaganda. The groups currently advancing are enemies of ISIS, even if their own ideology is problematic. Stay tuned for a better assessment of who these groups are, what they believe, and their actions in territory they control).
Furthermore, Assad never lost control over Aleppo and even at the regime’s lowest point the Syrian military had very large garrisons at extremely well defended bases in the city, a threat to rebel supply lines if they moved on Assad forces in the south. ISIS is not current a major factor having been all-but-destroyed in Syria, and those Assad positions have fallen. The rebels will be able to put all their efforts into advancing south.
What About The Kurds?
Or, perhaps, most of their efforts.
One of the big unanswered questions is how much fighting there will be between the new rebel force and the Kurdish forces that have a significant presence in northeastern Syria. First, let’s do a recap of this dynamic.
Way back in 2014, ISIS took over most of northern Syria and a large part of Iraq. An international coalition backed by the United States empowered the Kurdish-backed Syrian National Defense forces (SDF) to fight ISIS in northeastern Syria. This angered, greatly, Turkey, who has been locked in battle with certain Kurdish forces for decades. I won’t attempt to summarize or weigh in on this conflict, but it may be key to watching what happens next in Syria.
This new rebel offensive is made possible by an alliance of Syrian rebel groups with varying ideologies. Many of these groups are secular and have pledged to make Syria a democracy, some of these groups are hardline Islamists who would much rather see Islamic law rather than plurality. The largest two organizations are Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, a jihadist group that is getting a lot of the attention because they are the leaders of this coalition. The second largest group is the Syrian National Army (SNA), the remnants of the pro-democratic Free Syrian Army that have been reorganized and are backed by the Turkish government. These rebel groups distrust the Kurdish forces and have accused them or working with the Syrian regime, and there is evidence to back that up. As the new rebel coalition advanced, Assad forces in Aleppo turned over control of their most important base, the Aleppo International Airport, to the Kurdish SDF, who then retreated themselves.
HTS and the SNA have already fought multiple battles with Kurdish SDF forces in Aleppo province and in the city itself. It’s unclear if this will be a sign of things moving forward or if the SDF will retreat to northeast Syria. Though there are reports of clashes today, and reports of tensions with Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo city, there are signs that SDF forces are retreating and a direct confrontation with Turkish-backed rebels is not imminent. Again, things are very new, very uncertain, and this dynamic could change.
Can We Trust Jihadists Like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?
Obviously, the big question everyone wants answered is whether or not the Syrian rebels are going to topple Assad. This weekend it looked like they might do it without firing a shot. Now it looks like the battle that everyone expected will unfold. Syrian rebel groups are also making progress in southern Syria, near Daraa, the regime is scrambling to organize a resistance, and the big battles haven’t even started. My unsatisfying answer is, stay tuned.
But another question we’re all asking is what a Syria without Assad would look like. As I wrote in my initial analysis, this rebel coalition is a complicated mix of ideologies even if they are led by the Jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They have pledged to respect all sects, all religions, all peoples of Syria, and to put their differences behind them to topple the regime and bring about a new day for the Syrian people. But will that really happen?
Again, we will have to wait and see. It is apparent that HTS massacred some Syrian military troops that were captured in Aleppo. Other POWs were taken alive, however. There were early reports of a crackdown on Christians, but if these incidents did happen it appears as though it was a small group of HTS members and HTS leadership has worked to assure Christians that they will be protected. More recent reports from Aleppo suggest that the Christians are mostly welcoming the rebels, and Sunday services were held in the city and were greatly attended.
Early in the Syrian revolution, both protesters and armed groups worked hard to assure religious and cultural minorities and avoid sectarianism. The message was clear: the Assad regime may be sectarian, but a “free Syria” would be for everyone. It was only after ISIS and other jihadists had gained more power that sectarianism. HTS, after all, ultimately killed my friend Raed Fares and many other Syrians who were working for a secular, democratic, inclusive society. So what will it be?
A few things give me hope.
On Saturday, Ahmad al-Dalati, a deputy of HTS, spoke at the al-Rowaza Mosque in Aleppo city, and his message was clear — everyone, including Christians and Armenians, people of every sect, will have a role in the new Syria, and it is not permitted to harm anyone on basis of their religious, cultural, or ethnic identity.
The speech has English subtitles, and it is worth three minutes of your time.
The Fog of War
There was a time when it was possible for me to tell you what was going on in Syria in almost real time. I had hundreds of direct contacts across much of Syria, and each of those contacts had thousands more. Like most conflict reporters who have worked on this story, our sources have been decimated. After nearly 14 years of conflict, dozens and dozens of people whom I knew well are dead, many more have fled Syria, and many more than that have simply gone quiet. Some may be dead or imprisoned, some have fled, and some are just afraid to talk.
What remains is more problematic. Many news items and videos are released by partisans, warring groups, or people with an agenda that may run strongly against the truth. It is not impossible to sort through this noise, but it is more difficult than it has been. Luckily, some of those who are afraid to talk are waking up and coming back, and this situation may improve.
All of this is to say that I will be very cautious about what I post, and so should you. There is more disinformation on Syria than information, so be patient before spreading rumors.
Let me know on Bluesky, Twitter, Facebook or email (Proton mail, TheCasualanalyst@pm.me) what you want to know, or what will help you understand the conflict better. I have an exciting new initiative launching this week that I’m not quite ready to announce, but in the meantime you can always make a donation to my reporting efforts here. Stay tuned, and thank you!
