The Fall of Aleppo: A Turning Point in Syria’s Endless War?
Syrian rebel groups gathered on the steps of the Citadel of Aleppo on the night of November 29, an ancient monument that has never been held by rebel forces since the start of the war.
As I write this, I am in stunned disbelief.
After 13 years of sustained conflict, years of stalemate, and two days of renewed fighting, Syria's conflict may have reached a turning point.
On November 28, a coalition of Syrian rebel groups launched a massive offensive against Syrian government positions in the northwestern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. The attack was not unexpected, though the timing was unannounced. Syrian rebel groups had been privately organizing and publicly threatening to launch a new offensive over the last two months. According to the rebels, the Syrian government's three main allies—Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran—are incapacitated. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, Hezbollah has been nearly destroyed by Israel, and Iran faces the possibility of defending its own territory against an Israeli attack. Furthermore, the opposition's other key enemy, ISIS, has been severely weakened and is kept at bay by a coalition of international and Kurdish forces. With Turkey's blessing, the Syrian opposition is now free to form a new coalition and take the fight back to the Syrian government.
And, boy, did they ever.
In a truly stunning series of developments, the regime's lines on multiple fronts have collapsed. Tonight, just hours after the fight for the city began, it appears that rebel groups have full control over Aleppo, the most important city in the country besides the capital, Damascus.
Just 48 hours after the start of the offensive, the rebel coalition made significant advances in Idlib province, including the capture of Saraqib, on the road to Hama, Homs, and Damascus.
The regime has been incredibly slow to respond. Besides a few Russian airstrikes on the city of Idlib, relatively far from the front line, there has been hardly any response.
This can only be described one way—a total collapse of government battle lines.
Aleppo, Syria's Jewel
Aleppo’s importance to Syria’s conflict cannot be overstated. In 2011, the pro-democracy movement known as the "Arab Spring" sparked protests across the Middle East and North Africa, including in Syria. Tired of poverty, hunger, and brutal repression, Syrians began taking to the streets, city by city, neighborhood by neighborhood. As the protests grew, the Syrian regime crackdown intensified—first with blockades, then arrests and beatings, then gunfire, armored vehicles, and eventually every tool of war imaginable. As the crackdown intensified, defectors from the regime who refused to kill civilians ultimately formed the "Free Syrian Army" to protect protesters and, eventually, topple the regime.
At first, those protests were concentrated in places like Homs, Daraa, certain lower-class neighborhoods of Damascus suburbs, and rural areas like Idlib province—largely Sunni, lower- and lower-middle-class areas more likely to rise up against an Alawite regime focused on enriching Syria’s elite rather than its farmers and tradesmen.
Which is why everyone’s head spun when protests started in Aleppo, one of the most affluent areas of Syria.
Most Syrian elites sent their children to attend university overseas—in London, Paris, or the United States. Those who didn’t go abroad attended Aleppo University, Syria's equivalent of the Ivy League. Before the war, Aleppo resembled cities like New York or Los Angeles—affluent, educated, and influential—more than smaller industrial cities. It was also the largest city in the country, though Damascus had the largest metropolitan area if suburbs were included.
But as the regime's crackdown became more brutal, protests spread to Aleppo University itself. Surely, the regime would have to tolerate protests led by the children of elites? And they did, for a time. But each week in the summer of 2011, the protests in Aleppo grew larger and spread to more neighborhoods. When the regime cracked down and arrested those protesters, Syria's largest organization of lawyers launched hunger strikes and protests in solidarity. By the end of the summer, chaos in the rest of the country forced the regime to intensify its crackdown in Aleppo itself. Many students were beaten, arrested, and killed. For the first time in the conflict, armed defectors from Syrian government security forces escorted the student protesters.
These men called themselves the Free Syrian Army.
Over the next five years, the Syrian regime lost control of northern Syria, but despite being completely surrounded, Assad’s forces maintained two major military bases—one in southeast Syria at the military intelligence compound and the other in the southeastern neighborhood near Aleppo International Airport. No matter how hard the opposition fought, they never came close to taking these bases. And no matter how much manpower the regime needed elsewhere, Assad refused to give up Aleppo.
And today, the Syrian rebels simply walked in and took it.
An aerial view of the Citadel of Aleppo shows how defensible it is. The regime would not have abandoned it if they were planning on defending Aleppo.
Advances Made Possible by Ukraine and Israel
To understand how we got here, it’s important to go back to 2015. That fall, the Syrian regime was on the ropes, propped up only by Hezbollah shock troops, Iranian special forces, and Russian support. At the time, Russia had paused its hybrid war in Ukraine to focus on Syria, surprising many analysts by negotiating a ceasefire with the Ukrainian government. This allowed Russia to shift its attention to Syria. The result was a sudden reversal of rebel momentum, as Russian air power hammered both the rebels on the front lines and the civilians far from the fighting. The Syrian regime was saved and had not been in real danger since—until now.
In recent months, however, Assad’s allies have been dealt massive blows. Russia is slowly advancing in its second invasion of Ukraine but is paying an obscenely high price in men, material, and money. The Russian ruble is collapsing, the Black Sea fleet is nearly sunk, its tank armory is depleted, and with the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, Russia is now fighting a war on its own territory. Hezbollah’s ranks have been devastated by Israeli airstrikes and its land invasion. Iran has also faced defeats and seems unable or unwilling to fight a wider war.
Syrian rebel groups had been waiting for just this moment. Assad is alone. No one, however, expected him to be this weak even without his key allies’ support.
But Who Are These Rebels?
This renewed Syrian opposition is a coalition of various fighting groups, backed by multiple civilian organizations. However, we must not downplay the fact that this fight is being spearheaded by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS is a Sunni Islamist organization that formerly had ties to al-Qaeda. It is essentially a merger of several competing organizations, and since 2017, it has been the dominant force in northern Syria. Though HTS has become more pragmatic and moderate, they are also guilty of brutal crimes, including the 2018 assassination of prominent pro-democracy activist Raed Fares and his colleague Hamoud Jneed.
During the early days of the COVID pandemic, HTS quickly became the primary healthcare provider for much of northern Syria. This role led the group to become even more pragmatic and reliant on alliances with other groups, some of which hold competing worldviews.
HTS may be the largest member of this new coalition, but they are not the only major player. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), formed from the remnants of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), is playing a major role as well. The SNA is nominally pro-democracy and rejects the hardline Salafism of HTS, as do other groups in the coalition. For now, the removal of the Assad regime appears to take priority over disputes about Syria’s future.
There are, however, reasons to be cautiously optimistic.
Take this statement issued to two towns near Aleppo: "We aspire to build a new Syria that is inclusive of all its people, a state that respects the rights of all and guarantees justice and dignity among all its components. This aspiration will only be achieved through the solidarity of the Syrian people and the rejection of any attempts to sow division among its ranks and tear apart its social fabric."
A message to the 2 Shiite towns north of Aleppo pic.twitter.com/6HmAhlAhNx
— C4H10FO2P ☠️ (@markito0171) November 29, 2024
This language is similar to statements from other rebel groups as they advance. Are these just words? Time will tell. However, all sides agree that there is no future worth fighting for if the Assad regime remains in power.
What to Look for Next
It is likely that the Syrian opposition will quickly consolidate control of Idlib and Aleppo provinces. If Assad's forces were unwilling to fight for Aleppo, they are unlikely to defend the surrounding villages. The battle lines may develop along two fronts: southward toward Hama, Homs, and Damascus, and southwest toward Latakia, the regime's stronghold.
However, the rebels may not directly threaten Latakia, home to Assad’s ancestral strongholds and a large Russian naval base. If Assad flees Damascus, Latakia might be his last refuge. The rebels may also avoid provoking Russia further, focusing instead on advancing southward toward Damascus.
One critical factor will be how HTS and this coalition interact with Kurdish groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have spearheaded the war against ISIS in hopes of establishing autonomous territory in Syria. This might be the first true test of the opposition's pledge for unity.
What About Assad?
The big unanswered question is why Assad's forces are collapsing and whether this signals a military refusal to fight for a dictator with no future.
Speculation arose earlier when Assad traveled to Moscow with his family, fueling rumors that he had fled Syria or that Russia would not rescue him. Since then, Russia has promised military aid within 72 hours. However, with Russia fighting its own battles in Ukraine, it is unclear what resources it can spare for Assad.
If Assad stays, he faces a daunting fight. Rebel forces are bolstered by fresh recruits and significant amounts of captured weapons and supplies from Aleppo, including anti-aircraft missiles and dozens of tanks. If Syrian forces were unwilling to defend Aleppo, will they fight harder for Hama or Homs? If not, the fight could soon reach Assad’s doorstep.
And this time, Assad has no allies left to save him.
