What Is Biden's Strategy For Beating Trump? There Isn't Any
Santa Fe, NM: A 2020 political bumper sticker on an old red pick-up truck. | iStock | JannHuizenga
This election, by the numbers
Let's get this out of the way early: as my longtime readers know I oppose Donald Trump with the very fiber of my being. In fact in 2016 my team and I led The Daily Beast's efforts to comprehensively summarize and investigate everything we knew about Donald Trump's ties to Russia.
In 2016 Trump was a existential threat to everything we supposedly hold dear in this country. Today he is perhaps a hundred times as dangerous since he is both more hateful and deranged as he was then and, perhaps more importantly, because he will not have a staff of established leaders who can correct or interfere with his worst inclinations. He must be defeated, and the stakes simply cannot be understated.
And it is inevitable that he will defeat Joe Biden if Biden stays in the race. All available evidence, viewed from any angle and through any lens, concludes that Joe Biden will not be President after January 20, 2025.
Once we accept this, we can begin to look at alternatives.
13 Keys
In early May I wrote about Allan Lichtman, a US professor and historian who came up with an index that has successfully predicted every presidential election over the last four decades:
Allan Lichtman is famous for having successfully predicted the last 10 presidential elections, and he's nearly certain that Biden will win in the fall. Lichtman uses "13 keys," a set of 13 true/false questions that assess the performance and circumstances of the incumbent party to predict its success in retaining the presidency. These keys include factors like the economy's health, foreign policy successes, the incumbent's charisma, social unrest, and the absence of a strong challenger, among others. Each "false" answer moves the prediction toward a change in the party controlling the White House. Since Lichtman's keys are dispassionate and broad, his model ignores a lot of the smoke, and a lot of the particulars, to reach conclusions. While his official predictions aren't out until the end of summer, he told USA Today "a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose."
The problem is that several things have indeed gone disastrously wrong since Lichtman said that. Also, some of Lichtman's assumptions that have worked in previous elections may not work for this one.
Biden looked like he was listening to voices within his party and was decreasing support for Israel. Since then he has doubled down on support for Israel. No one is happy -- Netanyahu and his supporters on both sides of the ocean feel betrayed by Biden but so do pro-Palestinian protesters who believed Biden was changing course.
Biden has suffered a major scandal, or perhaps two. In June, Biden's son Hunter was found guilty of a "illegally owning a gun while a drug user" and has a trial for tax fraud that starts in September. More recently, and perhaps more importantly, Biden flubbed the first presidential debate so badly that there are very loud calls for him to step down or at least relinquish the Democratic nomination.
Perhaps as a result of the above, Biden went from having a slim lead in many battleground states to being behind in all of them, and that was before the debate.
With this in mind, let's take a look at [Lichtman's 13 keys](The 13 Keys to the White House | American University, Washington, D.C.) According to Lichtman's model, the incumbent needs 8 or more of the keys to be true in order to win:
Party Mandate: The incumbent party gained seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the most recent midterm elections.
No Primary Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbent Seeking Re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
No Third Party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Strong Short-term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Strong Long-term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Major Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
No Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
No Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
No Foreign/Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Major Foreign/Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Charismatic Incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Let's look at where we stand. 13 Keys to the White House could be currently scored for the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, based on available information as of mid-2024:
Party mandate: False. After the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans gained control of the House, flipping the majority from the Democrats. That's a loss for Biden, no debate.
No primary contest: True. There doesn't seem to be a significant primary challenge to President Biden within the Democratic Party. HOWEVER, there are many Democrats and left-leaning pundits who are now calling for Biden to step down, and if the primary season was held now this might have been different. We are in unique territory here.
Incumbent seeking re-election: True. President Biden is seeking re-election. BUT, one might consider Donald Trump an incumbent as well, and he is also seeking re-election.
No third party: I think Lichtman would call this true. No significant third-party or independent campaign is currently expected to impact the election significantly. However, RFK does exist and with margins this thin this is a "soft true" at best.
Strong short-term economy: True. The U.S. economy is not in recession as of mid-2024, with moderate growth and stable employment. I've written at length about how good the economy is. I've also written at length that there is now a significant decoupling of reality from public perception. As of late May, 55% of Americans believe the economy is shrinking and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession. Gallop's report says confidence in Joe Biden is "historically low" with only 38% of Americans trusting Biden's stewardship. Furthermore, studies show that Americans overestimate how bad inflation actually is and underestimate how rapidly their buying power has grown. Furthermore, Americans tend to blame the Federal government for everything, including local problems like real-estate and rent prices (more on these in some other blog post I'll get to eventually). If the economy is great but too many Americans think it's terrible, and either way they don't trust Biden to improve the economy, I think this is a false.
Strong long-term economy: True. Real per capita economic growth has been relatively strong during Biden's term, though this can be subjective depending on specific metrics and comparisons. But again, look at this through the lens of polling and this could also be considered a false.
Major policy change: Lichtman would probably say this was true. The Biden administration has enacted significant policy changes, particularly in areas like infrastructure, climate policy, and economic recovery plans. I'd question whether these count, however. Th
No social unrest: Lichtman might score this as true. We certainly haven't seen the kinds of unrest we saw during the Trump years or even during Obama. I'm going to score this as false. The U.S. has experienced significant social unrest on various issues, including Gaza, racial justice and political polarization.
No scandal: My guess is that Lichtman would classify this as true. I'm not certain. The Biden administration has faced allegations and controversies, including issues surrounding Hunter Biden and administration policies, though not all may be classified as "major scandals." Something to consider -- Trump and rightwing media would like us to think that the prosecution of both Donald Trump and of the January 6 rioters as scandals. Now, I think that the big scandal is Biden's own mental health. I'm going to score this as false.
No foreign/military failure: I think many people would say "true," but not me. The withdrawal from Afghanistan devastated Biden's approval numbers at the time and he has never recovered. Furthermore, the war in Gaza -- and soon perhaps in Lebanon -- have created a significant amount of discontent, particularly amongst young Democrats and independents.
Major foreign/military success: False. While there have been diplomatic achievements, such as rallying NATO allies against Russian aggression, there hasn't been a clear-cut major success comparable to, for example, the Camp David Accords.
Charismatic incumbent: False. While President Biden has substantial political experience and leadership qualities, he isn't broadly seen as a charismatic figure.
Uncharismatic challenger: False. If Donald Trump or another well-known Republican candidate runs, they are generally considered charismatic or significant figures within their party.
Based on this scoring, Lichtman (who, again, has not made his predictions public yet), would probably score it this way:
True: 9
False: 4
According to Lichtman's model, the incumbent needs 8 or more of the keys to be true. Therefore, with 9 true and 4 false keys the incumbent easily wins.
But if we take a more pessimistic look the score changes. Biden is behind. Democrats lost the midterms (undisputed, so mark that false), we'll say there is no primary contest (true), we'll give Biden credit for being an incumbent (true), we'll say there is no legitimate third party candidate (true). I can't give Biden credit for either a strong short-term or long-term economy since the voters don't seem to credit him for the strong economy, so that's two falses. I'm also not giving Biden credit for a major policy change since both the "Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act" and the "Inflation Reduction Act" just aren't resonating with voters as major positives. False. There is social unrest (false), we are currently in a big scandal (so, false), there has been foreign policy failure (false), there has been no foreign policy success (false), he's not charismatic (false) and Trump is (false).
True: 3
False: 10
And that's assuming we give Biden credit for being the incumbent, not having a primary contest, and not having a third party competitor. One might argue that all three of these are tenuous at best. Biden loses.
Am I being too pessimistic? Let's give Biden the most benefit we can. I can't flip the economic keys because the American public is very clear about what it thinks. Let's flip the "major policy change" and the "no foreign/military failure" to true. That still only gives him 5 keys.
Lichtman appears to be sticking to his guns and came out after the debate to say that it would be a mistake for the Democrats to replace Joe Biden, but either way the math simply does not work in Biden's favor.
Can The Course Be Changed?
Frequent readers know that I have been analyzing, in great detail, the "great decoupling" of perception from reality, especially when it comes to the economy. The data is clear -- the economy has been incredibly strong, across all income brackets, for several years, and wages have grown much faster than inflation. Perception is the opposite, and perception is wrong, and no amount of statistical analysis is going to change perception.
The bottom line is that Americans do not believe the economy is doing well, they do not believe inflation is going down, and they do not believe wages are going up faster than inflation, and they do not recognize that inflation is a global phenomenon and one that we've handled quite well.
If the Americans haven't been able to bring themselves to believe this reality yet, that's a major problem for the Democrats for three key reasons:
No amount of describing the data is going to change their personal feelings
No amount of good data has changed their minds, which means that no amount of good news that could happen between now and November will change their minds. Good job reports, wage increases, inflation being under control... all good news has no effect.
The economy fluctuates, as do prices (particularly on things like gasoline) and the smallest amount of bad news or slow down will increase their perception that the economy is struggling.
So if Biden is crucified for every mistake he makes and gets no credit for the good he does, but Trump gets no blame for the bad things that happen or his bad behavior but somehow gets credit for the good things (real or imagined), then voter perception is as rigged as a North Korean election.
And yet, it appears that the DNC's strategy is that if we just present the right stats, or we have one more good job report, or we just explain to the American people that the economy is great and Biden has done a great job, the Biden skeptics will say, "oh, you're right, my personal feelings have been wrong all along." I also fail to see how a relentless onslaught of right-wing campaigning (mixed with plenty of disinformation) is going to change these perceptions.
There is a chance, however, that a different candidate could defeat Trump, one who could distance themselves from Biden's mistakes, take credit for his successes, and without question pass a cognitive competency test.
And yet it doesn't look like that's likely to happen.
Democrats Are Looking Like Republicans Right Now
For a decade now the left (and plenty in the center, and quite a few on the right) have been arguing that Donald Trump is simply not fit for office. His temperament, his morals, his greed, his lust, his dishonesty, his criminality, his egocentrism, his nepotism, his love of fascists and despots and his disregard for the facts are just a few of the reasons why he should never be President and should never represent the United States, nor the Republican party, on a global platform. And yet Republicans have ignored the facts and ignored Trump's failings and made the argument that Donald Trump was the best candidate to beat the Democrats and they would vote for him, even if he "shot someone on Fifth Avenue."
Now many Democrats (and not all of them, we'll look at who in a minute) are saying that it does not matter that our President has signs of dementia, he can beat Trump and he's our guy. To make matters worse, the Republicans may have been right that Trump was the only candidate who could beat Clinton in 2016, but I do not believe Joe Biden is the best hope of defeating Trump in this election.
Furthermore, many have accused Trump of only wanting power so he can pardon himself and his family and friends. This weekend there was discussion that Joe Biden was considering stepping down, and he went away to Camp David with his family to reflect. The New York Times reports that Biden's family pressured him to stay. Who pressured him the hardest? Hunter.
I want to be careful here. These two men are not the same. Joe Biden is a patriot, a man who has selflessly served the American public. He overcame a speech impediment and a blue-collar upbringing to be President of the United States. He's a smart man who has done a lot of good for our country. But, as special counsel Robert Hur pointed out (rather politely), now he's "sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." I do not want to dedicate another word to how dangerous Trump will be in a second term, but I agree he will be much worse in his second term than his first.
A recent article I published points this out clearly. While still President, Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to launch a secret disinformation campaign that aimed to discredit the Chinese COVID vaccine, Sinovac, in the Philippines. The goal was to discredit China, the vaccine, and to potentially improve market share for American vaccines once they were available. Many Trump advisors, including everyone who knew about the operation at the State Department, objected to the plan. Trump did it anyway. When Biden took office and learned about it, he shut the program down and also put safeguards in place to ensure no similar program was launched without State Department approval.
It’s good to see that the Biden administration shut this effort down as soon as they learned about it, and it’s encouraging that the administration put more safeguards in place to ensure such things don’t happen again. On the other hand, it’s concerning, but not surprising, that the Trump administration would so quickly, eagerly, and thoroughly move against the advice of the State Department, which by and large remain the foremost experts on the various parts of the world in which they work.
This Pentagon problem has created real strategic communications issues that could haunt U.S. policymakers for a long time. It appears to be the kind of mistake that Trump and his allies are more than happy to make, and one which threatens to erase decades of STRATCOM progress. To avert this, there must be a sustained, multilateral shift towards alignment of messaging and outcomes – lest bad actors irreparably damage the reputation of these institutions on a global level.
Read the whole analysis here:
This is the perfect illustration of a key difference between these two men. Biden has surrounded himself with professionals, experts, and smart patriots who actually love their country and want to govern. And he listens to them. If Biden isn't as sharp as he once was, or if he forgets things, or if he gets confused, he has the right people there to help him. This is the way the White House is supposed to run.
Trump, on the other hand, does not listen to his advisors. In the first term he selected many "adults in the room" to surround him, but mostly to quiet the concerns of the GOP establishment. Some of these people even refused to carry out Trump's orders or sabotaged his agenda. By the end of his first term in office they were all fired. There will be no such safeguard. We will get a raw, unfiltered, wounded, threatened, cornered, angered, and, yes, mentally-addled Trump.
But in the end, that's not good enough. I didn't elect Jeff Zients, Bruce Reed, Natalie Quillian, Anita Dunn, Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, Jake Sullivan, Ron Klain, Kate Bedingfield, Ben LaBolt, or Jen O'Malley Dillon. I can't fire those people. And if he's losing his mental capacity, I can't trust that Biden will actually listen to them when it counts.
On the other hand, I would trust any of those people above Donald Trump.
So there it is: if the choice is between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, I will pick Joe Biden. But it's a terrible choice to make. Furthermore, the data is in -- many Americans simply will not make that choice.
