Hezbollah, Israel, Regional War and a Big, Complicated Mess
A regional war may be in its early stages in the Middle East, and a massive headache for the world continues to grow worse.
This weekend, Hezbollah launched a rocket attack on the Druze village of Majdal Shams in northern Israel, resulting in the deaths of 12 children and injuries to over 30 people. The attack targeted a soccer field, causing significant casualties and leading to widespread outrage and condemnation. Israeli authorities quickly attributed the attack to Hezbollah, although the group denied responsibility. The incident has escalated tensions, prompting Israel to plan a substantial military response.
While most analysts I know suspect Hezbollah was indeed behind the attack, there are some indications that Hezbollah's rocket misfired. It's unlikely that the Lebanese terrorist organization would specifically target the Druze, which is perhaps why they have denied responsibility. Either way, this is a bit of an academic question. The reality is that once again a Hezbollah attack on Israeli soil would trigger an Israeli response, and once again that could trigger another response from Hezbollah, or worse, Iran, Hezbollah's key ally and enabler.
As I've previously discussed, each attack like this presents a significant challenge for the targeted side, whether it is Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, or another party. The need to retaliate to save face with supporters and deter future attacks must be balanced carefully. A response that is too severe could provoke a broader, more intense counter-retaliation, while a weak response might be ineffective and anger supporters.
This scenario recently played out when Israel attacked an Iranian embassy in Damascus, prompting Iran to retaliate with a show of force designed more as a de-escalation tactic, targeting mostly military facilities with limited effectiveness. Israel's subsequent minor strike on an Iranian outpost responsible for drone launches led Iran to vow future revenge. This cycle of retaliation has been escalating since the October 7 terrorist attack and the subsequent Israeli offensive in Gaza. Each exchange increases the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Details are still rolling in but just hours ago citizens of Lebanon reported that an Israeli airstrike had destroyed at least one building in a neighborhood in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
This is significant because rather than strike a Hezbollah military camp or some similar site, they attacked in a residential area. The target of the attack appears to be a high-ranking Hezbollah officer or officers may have been the target, and there are reports that one or multiple officers have been injured or killed. We won't try to sort this breaking news story here, but by tomorrow it will likely be clear that Israel has decided to target high-ranking Hezbollah command and control. There is a very high likelihood that Hezbollah will see this as a serious escalation and will retaliate accordingly. If that happens, we may be seeing the first shots of a regional war.
Or, maybe not. We've seen these escalations fizzle before. Often, as in the case of the recent Iran-Israel tit-for-tat, it looked like a de-escalation was in the works ahead of time. It's frankly hard to see Hezbollah letting this go, and if they respond with a significant strike it's hard to see Netanyahu backing down. But it's certainly possible that once again this region will walk to the brink of regional war, throw the dice, and walk away.
But one day they will fall in, and the more those dice are rolled the more likely they will eventually fall in.
All of this is a major headache to the world. I think it's fair to say that opposition to Israel's war in Gaza has been steadily growing since its opening months as the death toll has risen. Israel has been accused of very serious war crimes, and the evidence is mounting every day that they are doing little to prevent civilian casualties. Recently, a group of Israeli soldiers have been accused of raping and torturing Palestinian detainees at the Sde Teiman detention facility. Israeli far-right protesters broke into the building to free the soldiers who were accused of these crime. These kinds of allegations have kept allegations of Israel's wrongdoing in the spotlight. Support is growing inside the United States to stop supplying Israel with weapons of war.
But a war with Hezbollah could alter that dynamic. The conflict between Hamas and Israel has largely been contained to Gaza and Israel. There is more opposition to Hezbollah, Iran, and Iran's proxies, that are a far more disruptive in the region and globally. The US and other regional powers are regularly trading blows with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, or Iranian operatives in Syria, for instance. Washington has much more at stake in a regional war, a war that could have tremendous impacts on the global economy. And that puts any of Israel's critics in Washington in a real bind -- how can they provide Israel military support to target Hezbollah while also restricting support for its war in Gaza?
Either way, a very dangerous game is being played in the Middle East, and ignoring it, or staying on the sidelines, may no longer be options for regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran, and for global powers like the US, NATO, or even others.
Watch this space.
