Joe Biden: The Most Effective President of the 21st Century
I'll write my full thoughts on Biden's legacy in a later post, but here's a preview: there is a reason experts and historians are calling him the most effective President of the 21st century. In fact there are countless reasons.
Before we even start this analysis we have to remember that Joe Biden has consistently faced stiff opposition in both the House and Senate and at no point in time had a super majority, making legislative progress nearly impossible. He also had the deepest hole we've ever been in, arguably deeper than the one Obama crawled us out of between 2009 and 2012. In other words, with a deeper hole than any President in history since FDR at least, and with fewer resources than, say, Obama, he managed to accomplish an incredible amount.
So what exactly did he get done?
The first target of his administration was COVID 19. His very first full day in office he invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to accelerate the production of necessary supplies, such as vaccines, testing kits, personal protective equipment (PPE), and other critical materials needed to manage the public health crisis effectively. After this he gathered the heads of major pharmaceutical companies, pharmacy chains, and health care providers, and brokered manufacturing and research deals that both accelerated research but, more importantly, manufacturing and roll out of the vaccines. The result was a vaccine rollout that was dramatically faster than was predicted, and perhaps a year or more faster than what was projected under the Trump administration. This was largely face-to-face and remote coordination, a hands-on running of the vaccine effort. And it was incredibly effective.
In Congress he started with the American Rescue Plan Act which was passed in March 2021. This $1.9 trillion stimulus package aimed to address the economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It included direct payments to individuals, extended unemployment benefits, funds for vaccine distribution, and support for schools and small businesses. On it's own, this would have primed the country for a great year, but what he did away from Congress was even more impressive. He federal government secured additional doses by ordering 200 million more doses from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, ensuring enough supply to vaccinate the entire adult population by the end of July 2021. The result was a rapid decrease in both the spread and mortality of COVID 19, and perhaps the strongest single year for the American economy in our entire history.
He also took action on wage growth. He signed an executive order on April 27, 2021, to raise the minimum wage for federal contractors and workers to $15 an hour. This executive order aimed to ensure that federal employees and contractors received a living wage, and the change was set to take effect on January 30, 2022. Approximately 390,000 people were impacted, seeing their wages increase by nearly 50% (the only other similar wage hike came under Obama. Before that Federal Workers were stuck at the national minimum wage which was increased to $7.25 by the Democratic-controlled 110th Congress).
COVID had already started to drive prices up globally, and by the end of 2021 inflation was a global problem thanks in part to two things: a massive spike in the economy described above, and continued supply-chain disruption due to COVID 19, tariffs, and other factors, some of which predate the pandemic. The US faired better than Europe and most of the rest of the globe for inflation, but by the first quarter of 2022 it was clear that inflation had reached unacceptable levels.
Economists called for the cooling of a very hot economy. The idea was to achieve a "soft landing," a slowing of the economy that decreased demand while supply increased, but without slowing the economy so much that the result was a recession. Many economists did not expect that a soft landing was achievable and predicted that either the economy would continue to grow at rates that would fuel high inflation, or would cool too quickly, triggering a recession, or worse, "stagflation."
Biden beat all expectations. What followed was one of the most impressive periods of economic growth in recent history:
GDP Growth:
The U.S. economy saw significant GDP growth in 2021 as it rebounded from the pandemic-induced recession. In 2021, the U.S. GDP grew by approximately 5.7%, the fastest annual growth rate since 1984.
Labor Market Recovery:
The unemployment rate dropped significantly from a peak of 14.8% in April 2020 to around 3.6% by mid-2022, reflecting a strong recovery in the labor market. Millions of jobs were added, and labor force participation began to recover.
Stock Market Performance:
The stock market experienced substantial gains during the early part of Biden's presidency, with indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching record highs. However, volatility and corrections were also observed, especially in 2022.
Average Wage Increases:
Wages saw significant increases as businesses raised pay to attract and retain workers amid labor shortages and increased competition. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by about 5-6% year-over-year during various months in 2021 and 2022. For the last 12 months wages have been growing faster than inflation.
In summary, he turned the economy from record high unemployment to record low unemployment, he reduced inflation faster than most of the rest of the world, and he put wages back on a path where they were growing faster than inflation. I am not aware of a single economist who had as optimistic a view on what was possible. When it comes to both COVID recovery and the economy, Biden simply exceeded all expectations.
But there's a big one I haven't talked about: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in November 2021, represents a landmark investment in America's infrastructure, its full effects have not yet been realized due to the inherently gradual nature of such large-scale projects. Here's a breakdown of the reasons why the impact of the infrastructure deal has been delayed:
Planning and Approval Processes
Project Planning: Infrastructure projects require extensive planning, including feasibility studies, environmental impact assessments, and detailed design work. These processes take time to ensure that projects are viable and will meet regulatory requirements.
Funding Allocation: The act allocated $1.2 trillion, but distributing these funds to various state and local governments and agencies involves complex bureaucratic processes. These entities need to apply for grants and demonstrate project readiness.
Procurement and Contracting
Bidding and Contracting: Once projects are approved, the bidding and contracting processes to hire construction firms and suppliers can be lengthy. Ensuring competitive and transparent procurement is crucial, which adds to the timeline.
Supply Chain Issues: The global supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have impacted the availability of materials and equipment needed for infrastructure projects. This has delayed the start and progress of many initiatives.
Workforce and Logistical Challenges
Labor Shortages: The construction industry is experiencing labor shortages, making it challenging to mobilize enough skilled workers for new projects. Training and hiring workers take additional time.
Logistical Coordination: Large-scale infrastructure projects often require coordination across multiple jurisdictions and agencies. Aligning schedules, resources, and objectives can be a complex and time-consuming process.
Initial Steps and Ongoing Projects
Early-Stage Activities: Some immediate actions have been taken, such as preliminary site preparations, upgrades to existing infrastructure, and smaller projects that require less lead time. However, the most visible and transformative projects are still in early stages.
Incremental Progress: Many projects are designed to be multi-year endeavors. While ground has been broken on various initiatives, the full benefits in terms of improved transportation, enhanced broadband access, and modernized utilities will unfold over several years.
In other words, most of the impact of this massive bill has not even been felt yet, ensuring economic growth for working-class Americans for years and decades to come. Oh, and we'll all get to enjoy the new infrastructure which will improve the lives of all of us.
Foreign Policy? A Mixed Bag, But That's Become The Sad Standard
I've often joked that the only bipartisan issue in Washington, D.C., is terrible foreign policy, and to be sure, Biden is a mixed bag.
On one hand, he represents a dramatic departure from Donald Trump. He immediately signaled to allies that the United States would not abandon them, and he also avoided the kinds of deliberately provocative acts that Donald Trump was conducting, like moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, or the decapitation strike on the Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani.
On the other hand, Joe Biden executed a Trump plan for withdrawal from Afghanistan, and this ended in disaster. Joe Biden's biggest policy failure is arguably sticking by a key US ally, Israel, during what many consider to be a genocidal war in Gaza. When it comes to Ukraine, Biden's early defiance against the invading Russians helped turn the tide of that war very quickly. There's a reason why many Ukrainians jokingly pray to "St. Javelin." On the other hand, his long-term support for Ukraine has been lackluster, and the Russians have made regular-but-slow advances for more than a year as a result.
I've posted more detailed analysis of these stories in the past, and I will write more in the future. But a key question that should be asked is whether these mistakes were out of line with the thinking of most Americans, or indeed would the other party do differently? The fact is the majority of the American people wanted the US to quickly withdraw from Afghanistan, and much like Kennedy's Bay of Pigs invasion, Biden went with his predecessor's plan. The US has been a staunch ally of Israel's for 80 years, reversing that would take both time and political capital, and neither Hamas nor Israel is properly incentivized to pursue peaceso it's unclear whether the US could really impact the direction of this conflict. On both Israel and Ukraine, Trump, in particular, has stoked the fire rather than attempting to put it out. His highly-provocative actions against Palestinians and Muslims have been well-documented, as has his affinity for Netanyahu. He has spoken against US aid for Ukraine and has often shown proclivity towards Putin and his regime.
So do I think someone other than Biden would have done better on foreign policy? No. And this is not to excuse these failures at all -- my primary interest in writing is in improving American foreign policy -- but Biden has been a stable if-not-revolutionary President, the Commander In Chief of a series of broken policies that need dramatic change more than they need effective management.
Biden's Biggest Failure -- Strategic Communications
Biden, much like Obama, has largely failed to adequately explain or defend his own policies with the American people. Recently I argued that this poor communication may have sprung directly from a strategy that worked on the campaign field in 2020. In the end, historians will likely judge Biden very kindly on his performance on economic issues, but Americans currently do not.
These failures look, on the surface, to be political failures, but a major topic I'll be covering in the future is that strategic communications failures make us all much, much weaker. Let's look at an example: NATO. On one hand, no single President has done more to strengthen the NATO alliance than Biden. On the other hand, the confidence of voting Americans in NATO as an organization remains low. At some point, in November, in fact, the voters may elect someone who capitalizes on this strategic communications failure and elects an anti-NATO president. what good, then, will all of Biden's work have been?
